ClippingKK

总而言之，要“富国强兵”，就必须使老百姓停留在辱、弱、贫、愚之中，如同好操纵的“提线木偶”。这样一种制度，会带来什么样的结果呢？当然会使这个国家的武力变得很强大

The fear of creative destruction is the main reason why there was no sustained increase in living standards between the Neolithic and Industrial revolutions. Technological innovation makes human societies prosperous, but also involves the replacement of the old with the new, and the destruction of the economic privileges and political power of certain people. For sustained economic growth we need new technologies, new ways of doing things, and more often than not they will come from newcomers such as Lee. It may make society prosperous, but the process of creative destruction that it initiates threatens the livelihood of those who work with old technologies, such as the hand-knitters who would have found themselves unemployed by Lee’s technology.

北宋末年的蔡京、蔡下这些人，从政治脉络来说都属于新党，用过去的话说，都属于“改革派”。当然，彼时讲的改革派是指强化国家垄断的改革派，不是像现在我们讲的要搞市场经济的改革派。 两派的斗争产生的是一种“尺蠖效应”：北宋后期新党和旧党轮流执政，国家政策就像只一放一缩的尺蠖，无论如何变化，都只有利于权贵。这与尺蠖爬行时一收一缩，但只向一个方向移动不是很像吗？新党只懂得与民争利，严重损害了“阡陌闾巷之贱人”的利益；旧党只懂得放任无为，则使权贵得以放手圈钱。国家的“自由放任”只是放出了无数土皇帝，却放不出一个中产阶级；国家的经济统制统出了与民争利，却统不出社会保障

In Guatemala, as in much of Central America, in a typical pattern of the vicious circle, extractive political institutions supported extractive economic institutions, which in turn provided the basis for extractive political institutions and the continuation of the power of the same elite.

Political and economic institutions shaped the response to technological innovation, creating once again the familiar pattern of interaction between existing institutions and critical junctures leading to divergence in institutions and economic outcomes.

现在我认为，历史的发展，无论过去、现在还是未来，都是不确定的。唯其不确定，人们的努力才有意义。过去的历史发展是有因果可寻的，发现历史中的因果链是历史学家的责任。但是人文的因果不同于物理的因果，就在于前者是概率性的，而不是必然性的。因此对历史的解释不可避免地具有相对性。也正因为此，我们的未来也具有不确定性。历史研究无法使人成为一个算命先生。但历史研究能够使我们增长智慧，鉴往知今，从历史中汲取经验教训，培养正确的价值观，知道什么是我们应该抵制的，什么是值得我们追求的，并且尽量找到用力点，以提高我们追求的成功率

但中国的“重农抑商”恰恰相反，“重农”就是要管制农业，农民只能种地，不让农民经商。所以大家不要以为“重农”就是重视农民利益，就一定对农民有好处。民众早就知道这个道理，叫“一管就死”“管一行死一行”。我国历史中经常有一种现象，就是朝廷不“重农”，农民的日子相对来讲还比较好过，朝廷越重农，农民越倒霉。因为朝廷越重农，就把农民管得越死，就会整天折腾农民，指定必须种什么、不能种什么、如何种田，把种田人搞得非常狼狈

The fear of creative destruction is the main reason why there was no sustained increase in living standards between the Neolithic and Industrial revolutions.